Start an interesting week on the Forex market and beyond, with decisive appointments for online binary options trading. In fact, news is expected to determine the trend of currency pairs, first of all eur/usd and usd/rub. Before we go into detail, let’s say right away that it will be a potentially downward week for the former and even more potentially upward for the latter.
The crucial point concerns the negotiations between the EU and Russia on the Ukraine issue, a war that must be seen far beyond a reconnection of territories but rather a real tug-of-war between Russia’s economic interests and those of Europe. While we have seen the pro-Russian troops advance from a military point of view in recent months, we must consider the EU’s advance from a political and economic point of view with the ‘annexation’ of border countries to its own legislation, which at the moment cannot help Russia, which, by the way, has seen its currency weaken a great deal in recent months.
Not a Short Time
So, here’s the scenario. You can turn the tables and describe the situation in a more diplomatic way, but for investors, you need to keep in mind the real situation and the most likely scenarios. When it comes to scenarios, Hollande is decidedly pessimistic, while Merkel manages to maintain an aplomb, which is, however, a bit embarrassed. From our point of view (and not only ours)
The situation will not be resolved quickly. The current summit may find temporary compromises, but there will soon be other areas affected by the conflict, which would open other discussion tables, increasingly critical and increasingly in favor of Putin. On the other hand, diplomacy is currently undermined by the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the G8.
Two Currency Crossings of the Forex Market
Returning to investment and trading, we anticipated in the introduction that the two instruments most involved will be cross eur/usd and usd/rub. Given the scenario just described it is easier to understand this prediction, which could be revised only in case there are big surprises in positive. At the moment assumptions for this to happen do not have a solid basis, as Putin’s demands are seen far removed from what European spokespeople are willing to deal with.
An obligatory parenthesis must be made for the eurodollar, because to the Ukraine issue must be added the Greece issue, with which other negotiations are under way regarding the moratorium on debt repayment of EURÂ 40Â billion and more generally for a review of austerity. Although this would not even be such a serious problem for Greece in economic terms, Europe is also insisting on austerity. This perspective comes mainly from Germany, a country where the word elasticity exists only in the vocabulary of physics.
Euro and Dollar
The euro may therefore be declining, especially against the dollar, which, on the other hand, is having a good time thanks to the stabilisation of growth macro-data, especially in terms of employment and consumption. This could be followed by an increase in the FED’s interest rate, which would further widen the gap, with European rates at an all-time low, at a time of quantitative easing, Greece and Russia. In short, to sum up, there could not have been a better time for the dollar.
Even for those who trade with binary options the moment can only be more favorable to play down on the euro-dollar pair. That’s for sure. If we look at a week from now and that being the case, there will be a downward trend, but as far as day trading is concerned, we recommend that you follow the news day by day paying attention to the statements coming from the table for Ukraine and Greece. We recommend trades as short as possible, so you can take advantage of the main trend.
Same thing, but in the opposite direction you can do for the cross usd rub since the dollar is very strong for the reasons we have seen before, while the ruble is already in trouble now could be against the whole of Europe.
We also take into account the trend of gas prices and the implications that it could have on the commodity market and therefore also on trading.
In this regard, the rebound in oil should be highlighted, which could mark interesting new support during the week with a view to an upturn.
Wanting to put it more into context, the overproduction of oil by the United States has also led to the current situation, due to the economic damage caused to Russia, in addition to other BRIC countries and other emerging countries, such as Venezuela, which will see its GDP fall dramatically this year due to the collapse in the price of crude oil.